In all of the hubbub about the upcoming elections, Evidence-Based Living had to ask: Is there any research evidence that might help us interpret what’s going on? (And, of course, we always scratch our heads about why there isn’t more discussion of research evidence on something so important.)
One of the few enlightening discussions I’ve seen comes in article by Jonathan Chait. Chait notes the endless debate over “Did Obama Lose the 2010 Elections?” that is roiling in media discussions this week.
Folks on the left say Obama’s responsible because he: 1) didn’t stick more to progressive principles, and 2) didn’t more aggressively tout the Democrats accomplishments. People on the right argue that Obama’s responsible because he 1) is out of step with what the country wants, and 2) has moved too far to the left.
But the blaming in either direction hinges on one question: What if the predicted election results are simply, well, normal? That is, what if the ruling party losing seats in the mid-term election is a predictable, scientific phenomenon, rather than someone’s (Obama’s, the Democrat’s, the media’s, etc.) fault? Of course, if this were the case, major news organizations would have nothing to discuss and pundits would be out of a job. Still, it’s worth considering.
This points us to an analysis by Douglas Hibbs, professor of political economy, in a just-published report from the Center for Public Sector Research. Hibbs, like a good scientist, makes clear that his model isn’t designed to specifically predict the elections, but rather to explain midterm House election outcomes in terms of systematic predetermined and exogenous factors.
Based on prior research, Hibbs tells us there are three fundamental factors that predict midterm elections:
1) the number of House seats won by the party in power in the previous election
2) the margin of votes by which the party in power’s candidates won in the prior presidential election
3) the average growth rate of per capita real disposable personal income during the congressional term (a measure of economic prosperity).
From the available data plugged into this model, Hibbs predicts the Democrats will lose about 45 seats. In other words, based on the model alone, we would expect the Democrats to lose control of the house even if the President made no difference at all. And most predictions show the Democrats losing about this many seats (or 5-10 more, depending on which electoral prediction web sites you look at).
Hibbs provides the necessary caveats about his work not being definitive. But it is certainly strong enough to make us ask: Where’s the science behind a lot of the political debate and punditry? The evidence-based perspective encourages us to be careful in attributing cause and effect where none may exist.
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