Evidence-based soccer: Scientific predictions for the World Cup?

I have for many years played soccer – badly. I began in high school some 40 years ago, when our only available opponents were private schools that beat us by scores that sound like American football results (e.g., 14 – 0). I continued as the slowest (but most enthusiastic) player on a variety of adult teams, hanging up my soccer boots only a couple of years ago when the injuries seemed no longer worth it (although nostalgia hits me every fall).

But those who can’t do, can watch. And every soccer fan’s heart begins to beat mightily for the World Cup, the every-four-year phenomenon that captures the entire world’s attention (except for, unfortunately, much of the United States). As we did earlier with basketball, we at Evidence-Based Living couldn’t help asking the question: Is there evidence-based soccer? 

Leave it to a Cornell colleague to come up with just that. Christopher Anderson (former soccer player and self-proclaimed “soccer dad”) teaches in the Government Department. In his spare time, he has created soccerquantified.com, which approaches the “beautiful game” with sophisticated statistical analysis. If you want to see how techniques like logistic regression can be interestingly (and understandably) applied to a something in the real-world, reading Anderson’s blog is worth it for that reason alone.

Anderson has gathered data about past competitions, looking at such issues as each national team’s record, characteristics of the country, and home-continent advantage to predict a likely  winner. He doesn’t claim certainty by any means, but the data point toward powerhouse Brazil as having the best chance. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the U. S. advances out of the first round, based on the data.

 Like any good scientist, Anderson is clear about limitations. The overall probability of any one particular team winning is low, given that there are 32 countries competing and there are a lot of factors that are hard to control for (for example, the high altitude of some of the South African venues may affect play for some teams).

 Anderson isn’t the only academic obsessed with soccer. Take a look at the Journal of Economic Psychology, which had a special issue on “The Economics and Psychology of Football.” Articles include analyses of referee behavior (the home team advantage is in part due to pressure on referees from the home crowd) and how distance from your home field affects whether you win or not.

So, let the games begin! And let’s see if a scientific approach works to predict the real-world outcome.